The Ukrainian army, which has acquired advanced weapons has recently made a heavy counterattack on Russia. Vladimir Putin, the Russian President poses threat to use nuclear weapons, and even the mobilization order of 300,000 soldiers, proves that the Russian army has been defeated, and the so-called "referendum" in the Russian-occupied areas is only a struggle. In the future, there is almost only “total war” left for Russia to have a chance of winning. Although military strength is important, it wasn't that many victories could win with “few defeats many” in history. The previous goal of Russia's invasion of Ukraine was unclear, and it did not make corresponding preparations, which offset its military advantage. The same is true from an investment perspective, even if you have a lot of money, it does not mean that you will win. Thus, you'd better invest cautiously with a plan. 

As in the United States, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again in September by 0.75% which is the third time in a row. The market expects that the interest rate will continue to rise sharply this year, and the yield of the two-year government bond has increased to 4.3558%, which is more serious than the inversion of the yield of the ten-year government bond. The bond bear market has officially arrived. The Fed's policy also led to a sharp rise in the US dollar index, reaching as high as 114.53, although it retreated later. Only from the end of last month to the writing date (113.56), it rose by nearly 4.5%, and many foreign currencies also fell. The British government's tax reduction plan also pushed the pound to a record low against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the RMB also surged to 7.16 at the time of writing. The Japanese government was also unable to resist the decline of the yen, and the US dollar fell below 141 against the yen for a while, and then went back to above 144. Fixed income and yields of US Treasury rose sharply. In addition to attracting a large amount of capital into the United States, it also increases investors' requirements for Return on Investment (ROI) and reduces investments with lower expected returns. As a result, the entire global economy is falling into a sharp contraction, triggering the turbulence in global market. A global recession is almost a foregone conclusion. A global recession is almost a confirmed conclusion. US stocks continued to be weak, the Dow fell below the 30,000-point mark. In addition, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have already fallen by more than 20% from their historical highs, and the three major indexes have technically entered a bear market.

I mentioned last month that "it is almost impossible for the Hong Kong stock market to fully improve". Hong Kong stocks continued to decline in September, falling below the low of 18,235 in the first half of the year, and then fell further below the 18,000 marks, reaching 17,665 at the time of writing, which is a new low since the European debt crisis in 2011.

Hong Kong stocks continued to decline in September, falling below the low of 18,235 in the first half of the year, and then fell further below the 18,000 marks, reaching 17,665 in the writing times, which is the lowest level since the European debt crisis in 2011. Now that the US dollar and interest rates are rising sharply, even the "strongest" property market in Hong Kong is being held back. Last month, Japan was fully open the gate, but the Hong Kong government responded slowly with "0+3" plan. There are many people buying Japanese air tickets, which is almost unattractive to tourists coming to Hong Kong. Under the severe economic situation, it is almost natural for the Hong Kong stock market to continue to drop to the bottom. 

Unless there is a sudden major good news (such as terminating the war between Russia and Ukraine suddenly), the chances of testing the 2011 HSI low of 16,170 are high.

In view of this, my recommendation this month still focuses on the stability and Giordano International (0709) is chosen. Although Chow Tai Fook failed to complete the purchase, the number of shares accepted was too small, reflecting that the supply of goods was quite concentrated. Even the CEO and the chairman himself thought that the price of 1.88 dollars was too low. The company's business is also scattered in other parts of the Asia-Pacific region, and the proportion of business in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan is relatively low. The business in Middle East is expected to benefit from the tourists and economic benefits brought by the World Cup, as well as maintaining a high interest rate distribution policy, which has considerable resistance in the falling stock market. The historical interest rate of Giordano has risen to 11%, and the market value has fallen below the book value. Profits and dividends increased in the first half of the year, and the performance is expected to be relatively optimistic for the whole year. The current price has fallen back to the level before the announcement of full purchase. Below 1.5 dollars is an opportunity of mid-line buying. David Webb himself is willing to buy at above 1.8 dollars, which naturally makes sense. It is also expected to return to the full purchase price of 1.88 dollars before the end of the year.

Kay Ho (CE No.: ANV293)

Acer King Capital Hong Kong Limited

Statement: The author is a licensee of the 1st, 4th, and 9th types of licenses of Securities and Futures Commission, SFC. Acer King securities Limited and Acer King Capital Hong Kong Limited are affiliated companies of Hantec Group and were invited to contribute articles in Hantec Group's monthly newsletter. The writing does not represent the position of Hantec Group. As the author does not personally hold the above-mentioned shares, investors should exercise caution when buying or selling relevant securities and investment instruments.