Although the Democratic Party lost the majority of the House of Representatives in last month's mid-term elections, it managed to retain control of the Senate, which is good news for the current U.S. government. Therefore, in the short term, the US policy approach will not change substantially. According to the minutes of the Fed's meeting last month, "a majority of participants felt that the appropriate time to slow the pace of rate hikes may not be long in coming". In addition, some economists expect an economic recession in the coming year, and the market expects that the rate of interest rate hikes in December will slow down, which will drive the adjustment of the US dollar and the rise of US stocks. As for the sales data for the Thanksgiving holiday, it's pretty good in terms of gold coins.  

The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects 166.3 million shoppers from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday this year, 8 million more than last year. The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects 166.3 million shoppers from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday this year, 8 million more than last year. The traffic volume of tourists returning home to visit relatives in the United States is estimated to be about 55 million, roughly returning to pre-epidemic levels. It's a pity that the problem of high inflation still poses considerable troubles to the European and American economies. Behind the optimism, there are many hidden problems. In the future, the US dollar and US interest rates will still rise further, which will be even more unfavourable to the development of the real economy. We continue to maintain the view last month that "the US interest rate will exceed 5% next year is almost a foregone conclusion" and "a major correction in the valuation of US stocks is inevitable".  

The mainland stock market and the Hong Kong stock market both rebounded significantly in November. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index reached a high of 3,145.75 and 18,414.09 respectively. At the time of writing, they were 7.5% and 20.4% higher than the lows of 2885.09 and 14,597.31 last month. It is a pity that the improvement of the trend lacks real upward motivation and transactions. Recently, although it has been pointed out that the debt arrangements/restructuring plans of several mainland real estate companies have made progress, and the mainland has lowered the RRR, the market sentiment has improved. Due to the difficulty of supply in winter, the author believes that the war between Russia and Ukraine will be relatively peaceful in the short term. The Russian side will now take this opportunity to intensify the training of recruits and prepare for another offensive in the spring. Although the valuations of stocks in China and Hong Kong are far more reasonable than before, now is the "World Cup" month, and the turnover will not suddenly increase. It's fine to wait and see for a while. If you want to invest, you should focus on the industry sector as the main investment theme.  

Regardless of the mainland or even the world, especially the trend of short videos among young people, from Douyin, Kuaishou, IG, etc., which were first developed, have added short video content to traditional platforms such as Facebook and Youtube. Even after Musk’s new acquisition of Twitter, he decided to revive Vine as the ancestor of short video as soon as possible. Not to mention young people, even I have used it for a long time without realizing it. Recently, it has replaced games as the focus of the new generation of mobile phone users. As an efficient information dissemination carrier, a short video can enable people to learn the most information in the least amount of time, and the effect of information dissemination is greatly improved. On the other hand, short videos have developed a group of KOL, who carry goods, etc., gradually forming an "appearance economy", and people generally pay more attention to appearance. To make use of the "dividend" brought by appearance, cosmetics and medical beauty services are almost necessary. In recent years, more doctors and even medical institutions have transformed into medical aesthetics, and many traditionally listed companies have shifted to the development of the medical aesthetics industry, such as Hong Kong Ferry (0050), Yingjian Medical (1419) and so on. "2022 Insight Report on China's Medical Aesthetics Industry" from Deloitte this year predicts that the CAGR of the Chinese and global medical aesthetics industries will reach 14.2% and 10.5% from 2021 to 2030, which is clearly in an upward cycle.  

I recommend a "medical beauty concept stock" Sisram Medical Ltd (1696) this month. The company mainly provides energy source equipment to the institution. Benefiting from the new launch of cosmetic and digital dental product lines this year, and the acquisition of Fosun Dental, the company’s revenue in the first half of this year increased by 39.3% year-on-year to US$174 million. Both North America and the Asia-Pacific region have grown by more than 42%, and in the war-affected European region, business income has also increased by nearly 30%. On the other hand, the company has $149 million in cash and equivalents on hand, which is more than its total liabilities. The bank borrowing is only US$5.7 million, the company's receivables are relatively small relative to its income, and the number of instalments and inventory cycles are relatively short. This year, the company launched the personal care brand LMNT. The first product, LMNT One is a light wave home beauty instrument. In the future, the company's business can be transformed from B2B to B2B2C, and the gross profit margin is expected to further increase. The current market value is about HK$3.35 billion, the price-to-book ratio is about 1 time, and the expected price-earnings ratio is about 10 times. Driven by the trend of medical beauty, the growth rate of income will continue in the future. You can first look at the position of 8.7 dollars on the central axis of the Bollinger Channel on the weekly chart.  

Win Health Medical (1419), which was promoted last month, successfully built a bottom above 1.5 dollars. This month, it took advantage of the rebound of the market and rose sharply. At the time of writing, it has reached a high of 1.93 dollars. In terms of its 30-day volatility of less than 37% (compared with HSBC (0005) and Henderson Land (0012)’s volatility of 30% and 39% respectively in the same period), the performance is very good. It has always had a historical price-earnings ratio of 1.95 times and an interest rate of 15.5%. The valuation is impeccable. At present, the Covid-19 epidemic is still severe, and the business volume will continue to be maintained with the upward target of 2.2 dollars.

Kay Ho (CE No.: ANV293)

Acer King Capital Hong Kong Limited

Statement: The author is a licensee of the 1st, 4th, and 9th types of licenses of Securities and Futures Commission, SFC. Acer King securities Limited and Acer King Capital Hong Kong Limited are affiliated companies of Hantec Group and were invited to contribute articles in Hantec Group's monthly newsletter. The writing does not represent the position of Hantec Group. As the author does not personally hold the above-mentioned shares, investors should exercise caution when buying or selling relevant securities and investment instruments.